When it come to comet impact , the dweller of Earth may beliving on borrowed time . Of course , comets are only about half the problem — there are plenty of asteroid whizzing around the inner solar system too — so we decided to have a look and see just how close mod society has issue forth to destruction since 1900 , and how tight we ’re run short to come over the next 100 years . The answers , provided in our cracking infographic , are n’t reassuring .
https://gizmodo.com/incoming-earths-due-for-a-massive-comet-impact-386969
NASA ’s leaning of potentially hazardous asteroids ( PHAs ) currently numbers 959 . That ’s 1,000 asteroid that astronomers pretty much make love are expire to get closer than 7.5 million kilomters to Earth , about 20 times the distance from here to the Moon . Five of those are expected to come between Earth and the Moon over the next C .
So we ’ll have a few close shaving but nothing to worry about , good ? Not so fast . The full number of PHAs and comets astronomers think are out there is probably more like 20,000 . That stand for we ’ve map about 5 % of the objects that stand a good chance of hitting us . So take the future part of this chart as a best - case scenario . The preceding five close encounters , however , show just how vulnerable we are :
1 ) The Comet of 1491 . This one must ’ve affright the hell out of some folks . At a little less than four sentence the distance to the moon , this was the closest pass ever recorded at the time , and no one bonk for sure how big it was . Little did our antecedent know how much more interesting things would get .
2 ) Tunguska , 1908 . One of the most far-famed Earth lcose calls of all sentence , it was also a pipsqueak . For a long time scientists believe a comet perhaps 60 meters in diam explode over Siberia with a military unit of as much at 30 megatons , or about 2,000 time more powerful than the atomic dud dropped on Hiroshima , though nothing strong ever pip the planet . All those pictures of flatten forest certianly look telling , but last year , scientists re - crunched the act and found that the comet oculd’ve been as small as 30 meters , and the blast just 5 megatons . In other give-and-take , much smaller object can do way more hurt than we ever think before . Gulp .
3 ) The Great Daylight Fireball of 1972 . The name says it all — it does n’t get much closer than this . sizing gauge range from 3 to 14 meter in diam , depending on whether it was water ice or stone . Whatever it was , the aim call US19720810 burn through the ambience from Utah to Canda for about a hour and a half . Luckily , the space rock struck a glancing blow — had it run into Earth directly , it could ’ve blasted us with 1/2 a Hiroshima Charles Frederick Worth of energy .
4 ) 2004 FH and 2004 FU162 . At 30 meters in diameter and made of hearty rock , 2004 FH would be a thumper of Tunguska proportions if it ever pip house . In the right ( or amiss ) seat , it could detroy a city . As it was , it passed 43,000 kilometers above Earth on on March 18 , 2004 .
Three weeks later , FU 162 came whizzing along . Astronomers basically discovered it at bascially the same metre as the 6 - measure in diam rock soared just 6,400 km above Earth ’s surface .
5 ) Comet Hyakutake . Now we ’re getting into civilization - imperil soil . At 2 klick in diameters , this comet only got within about 40 lunar distances to Earth in 1996 . Compared ot our other close calls , that ’s pretty comfortable , but considr this : it was discovered less than two month before its closest pass . Had it been on a hit course with Earth there ’s almost nothing we could ’ve done other than brace for the 1000000 all in , massive climate disruption , crop bankruptcy , 500 - foot high tsunami … you get the idea .
hereafter :
6 ) 1999 AN10 . In a little less than 20 year , our ordinarily quiet Earth - Moon system is run to have a lot of visitor . In August 2027 , AN 10 is going to get about one lunar length from Earth , and we ’ll get a luck to see just how big this bad male child is . estimate range from 1/2 to 2 kilometers in diameter , plenty large to go away a dent in humanity if it ever drive closer .
7 ) 2001 WN5 . Just six months after AN10 add up a callin ’ WN5 will get even closer , just about splitting the deviation between Earth and the Moon . At 700 meters in diamters , this asteroid has a stick potential for major dmaage , but current odds of wallop are rat a negligible .
- 99942 Apophis . By far the most famed of the ending - bringing object we fuck about in our solar arrangement , astronomers thought for a while that this 270 meter - wide rock had an almost 3 % opportunity of murder us . Since then , odds have been lowered to 1 in 43,000 that it could bang into Earth in 2029 . But if it passes through a gravitaitonal keyhole — a tiny region in space that could pluck its arena ever so slightly — an encroachment could still find on April 13 , 2036 .
9 ) 2005 WY55 . Just 200 meters full , uranologist think this asteroid could still pack a wallop . Right now it ’s scheduled to get within about 75,000 km of Earth , but impact betting odds are big enough to kep in mind — presently they ’re fink at around 1 in 70,000 . If our number come up on that faeful dayin May 2065 , look out — eruption yield estimation from this rock and roll kitchen stove to 1100 megatons .
10 ) 2000 WO107 . Depending on how well human beings hold up under mood change , bird flu , and all the other affair that could potentially defeat us off , we might be able-bodied to look up and see WO107 rapid growth by in December 2140 . The 400 meter - broad rock is n’t scheduled to reach us — it should get about half way between Earth and the Moon — but if deliberation are off by even a piddling bit ( and all of the next examples here have some uncertainty ) we could give care a mass .
Sources : NASA ’s Near Earth Object Program , Harvard List of PHAs
extra research by Nivair H. Gabriel . trope by Stephanie Fox .
NASA
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